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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 50%
Total Value
$510.05
Combined PnL
-$546.98
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares573
Combined PnL-$548.19
Down3 traders
Total Value$510.05
Total Shares510
Combined PnL+$1.21
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$547.02 | 51% 2954-2869 (5823) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $509.3 | $500 | +$0.61 | 55% 2993-2461 (5454) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.9 | $5.05 | +$0.15 | 67% 3113-1544 (4657) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $5 | +$0.45 | 63% 3684-2190 (5874) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 1212-1995 (3207) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.1¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 49% 2171-2227 (4398) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$547.02
Record
51%
2954-2869 (5823)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$509.3
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
2993-2461 (5454)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
67%
3113-1544 (4657)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.45
Record
63%
3684-2190 (5874)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
1212-1995 (3207)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
49%
2171-2227 (4398)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb709d857...0f200c
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794624900