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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 50%

Total Value

$53.24

Combined PnL

-$476.41

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares551
Combined PnL-$494.1
Up5 traders
Total Value$53.24
Total Shares53
Combined PnL+$17.69
Down — 50%Up — 50%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$510.38

Value

—

PnL

-$484.07

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

SO
soswald1<$100
Up

Invested

$8.55

Value

$15

PnL

+$6.45

Record

51%

2752-2659 (5411)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$7.58

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$3.99

Record

66%

2874-1453 (4327)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Up

Invested

$7.32

Value

$11.72

PnL

+$4.4

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$10.85

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.91

Record

63%

3391-2033 (5424)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.16

Value

—

PnL

-$3.16

Record

49%

2006-2058 (4064)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.21

Value

—

PnL

-$3.21

Record

47%

1726-1951 (3677)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

40%

1121-1688 (2809)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Up

Invested

$1.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.75

Record

64%

2024-1152 (3176)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.06

Value

—

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

2202-2016 (4218)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x89efe09b...1eb275
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794593100

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$484.07
SO

soswald1

Up — $15

+$6.45
AS

asdaefef

Up — $11.57

+$3.99
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $11.72

+$4.4
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $9.94

-$0.91
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Down — $0

-$3.16
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Down — $0

-$3.21
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

CTR

Down — $0

-$3.6
AS

asidjasiodja

Up — $5

+$3.75

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.06
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