Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
7
Down 29%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$19.04
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50Β’ | $550 | $534.74 | +$8.35 | 51% 2752-2659 (5411) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.3Β’ | $504.96 | $496.74 | +$0.4 | 55% 2727-2200 (4927) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.3Β’ | $249 | β | -$249.7 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $248.44 | $496.74 | +$250.1 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 70.8Β’ | $60.35 | $53.34 | -$7.01 | 51% 2495-2439 (4934) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 70.8Β’ | $37.76 | $53.34 | +$15.58 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 31.8Β’ | $22.59 | β | -$22.59 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 82.7Β’ | $22.37 | $23 | +$0.46 | 63% 3391-2033 (5424) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.8Β’ | $11.9 | β | -$11.9 | 50% 1904-1877 (3781) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 34Β’ | $10 | β | -$10 | 38% 1131-1839 (2970) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 29Β’ | $4.06 | β | -$4.06 | 49% 2006-2058 (4064) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 7Β’ | $1.09 | β | -$1.09 | 44% 1668-2150 (3818) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 8Β’ | $0.8 | β | -$0.8 | 48% 1683-1811 (3494) |
Invested
$550
Value
$534.74
PnL
+$8.35
Record
51%
2752-2659 (5411)
Invested
$504.96
Value
$496.74
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
2727-2200 (4927)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.35
Value
$53.34
PnL
-$7.01
Record
51%
2495-2439 (4934)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.37
Value
$23
PnL
+$0.46
Record
63%
3391-2033 (5424)
Invested
$11.9
Value
β
PnL
-$11.9
Record
50%
1904-1877 (3781)
Invested
$10
Value
β
PnL
-$10
Record
38%
1131-1839 (2970)
Invested
$4.06
Value
β
PnL
-$4.06
Record
49%
2006-2058 (4064)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
β
PnL
-$1.09
Record
44%
1668-2150 (3818)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
β
PnL
-$0.8
Record
48%
1683-1811 (3494)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
soswald1
Down β $534.74
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage β excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $23
uninformedfloww
CTRUp β $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0

ohioism
CTRUp β $0