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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$500

Combined PnL

-$26.68

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares113
Combined PnL-$27.25
Down2 traders
Total Value$11
Total Shares11
Combined PnL+$0.57
Up — 78%Down — 22%
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$512.93

Value

$489

PnL

-$11.75

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Up$253.9249.8¢-$257.9
Down$244.0549.9¢+$246.15
SO
soswald1CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.61

Value

—

PnL

-$10.61

Record

51%

2752-2659 (5411)

PB
PBot-5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.96

Value

—

PnL

-$5.96

Record

49%

1020-1054 (2074)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Down

Invested

$5.58

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.42

Record

40%

1121-1688 (2809)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

3391-2033 (5424)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.54

Value

—

PnL

-$3.54

Record

44%

1668-2150 (3818)

MO
mo-moneyCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.08

Value

—

PnL

-$1.08

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.23

Value

—

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

1135-1122 (2257)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1131-1839 (2970)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.77

Value

—

PnL

-$5.77

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x55dc2c8d...3b729a
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794591900

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.75
SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$10.61
PB

PBot-5

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.96
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

+$0.42
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5

+$0.15

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Up — $0

-$3.54
MO

mo-money

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.08
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.23
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.05
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.77
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