Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$37.57

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$35.18

Down1 trader

Total Value$23.14

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$2.39

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$550	$534	+$19.56	51% 2358-2296 (4654)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$259.5	—	-$252.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$267	$534	+$271.71
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$1.84	—	-$1.84	49% 1687-1773 (3460)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$25.53	$23.14	-$2.39	62% 2900-1741 (4641)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 29.4¢	$12.24	—	-$12.24	38% 979-1602 (2581)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$1.12	—	-$1.12	66% 2455-1255 (3710)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 69¢	$13.68	—	-$13.68	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$2.7	—	-$2.7	46% 1416-1633 (3049)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$3.6	—	-$3.6	38% 813-1313 (2126)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$534

PnL

+$19.56

Record

51%

2358-2296 (4654)

Both legs:

Up$259.550¢-$252.15

Down$26750¢+$271.71

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢-$250

Down$25050¢+$250

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

—

PnL

-$1.84

Record

49%

1687-1773 (3460)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$25.53

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$2.39

Record

62%

2900-1741 (4641)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$12.24

Value

—

PnL

-$12.24

Record

38%

979-1602 (2581)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

—

PnL

-$1.12

Record

66%

2455-1255 (3710)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$13.68

Value

—

PnL

-$13.68

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

—

PnL

-$2.7

Record

46%

1416-1633 (3049)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

38%

813-1313 (2126)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6229b728...7d2a62

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794533700

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $23.14

antsaslyku

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket