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UpDownDown
MayorMamdani<$100Down
ohioismCTR<$100UpUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Up 57%
Total Value
$43.86
Combined PnL
-$503.9
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares526
Combined PnL-$506.35
Down3 traders
Total Value$43.86
Total Shares44
Combined PnL+$2.45
Up — 57%Down — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $22.15 | $25 | +$2.85 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $14 | $12.75 | -$1.25 | 38% 953-1575 (2528) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86.1¢ | $5.26 | $6.11 | +$0.85 | 52% 1846-1725 (3571) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 48% 1394-1530 (2924) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 63% 2841-1704 (4545) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 66% 2417-1229 (3646) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$22.15
Value
$25
PnL
+$2.85
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$14
Value
$12.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
38%
953-1575 (2528)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.26
Value
$6.11
PnL
+$0.85
Record
52%
1846-1725 (3571)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
48%
1394-1530 (2924)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
63%
2841-1704 (4545)
AS
asdaefefCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
66%
2417-1229 (3646)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfe3c1d02...ac2018
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794528300