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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 20%
Total Value
$65.39
Combined PnL
-$478.89
Smart Money Signal
Up
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares500
Combined PnL-$500
Down4 traders
Total Value$65.39
Total Shares65
Combined PnL+$21.11
Up — 20%Down — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $16.67 | $32.77 | +$16.1 | 51% 2307-2260 (4567) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $15.55 | $18.62 | +$3.07 | 38% 953-1575 (2528) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $8.91 | $9 | +$0.09 | 66% 2417-1229 (3646) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $5 | +$1.85 | 63% 2841-1704 (4545) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$16.67
Value
$32.77
PnL
+$16.1
Record
51%
2307-2260 (4567)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$15.55
Value
$18.62
PnL
+$3.07
Record
38%
953-1575 (2528)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$8.91
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.09
Record
66%
2417-1229 (3646)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.85
Record
63%
2841-1704 (4545)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa88ecb0c...3a7d8e
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794527700