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DownUpDownUpUp
MayorMamdani<$100UpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Down 50%
Total Value
$530.22
Combined PnL
-$529.17
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares555
Combined PnL-$538.95
Up4 traders
Total Value$530.22
Total Shares530
Combined PnL+$9.79
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$509.89 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $26.86 | — | -$26.86 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $5.6 | $15.22 | +$9.62 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $6.27 | $9 | +$2.73 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $8.56 | $6 | -$2.56 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $0.8 | — | -$0.8 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$509.89
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$26.86
Value
—
PnL
-$26.86
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$15.22
PnL
+$9.62
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$6.27
Value
$9
PnL
+$2.73
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.56
Value
$6
PnL
-$2.56
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
—
PnL
-$0.8
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xdbc239b5...e1c5a5
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794522600