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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Up 29%
Total Value
$42.11
Combined PnL
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,050
Combined PnL$-1.0K
Down5 traders
Total Value$42.11
Total Shares42
Combined PnL+$1.35
Up — 29%Down — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$546.2 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $14.98 | $15 | +$0.02 | 49% 936-980 (1916) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 98.2¢ | $11.78 | $12 | +$0.22 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $4.4 | $5.11 | +$0.71 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$546.2
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
0X
0x50f7<$100Invested
$14.98
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
936-980 (1916)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$11.78
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.22
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.71
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0b666ee0...9b54de
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794521700