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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 36%

Total Value

$591.36

Combined PnL

-$482.12

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares524

Combined PnL-$527.78

Down7 traders

Total Value$591.36

Total Shares591

Combined PnL+$45.65

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$550	$500	+$8.97	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$10.55	$24.16	+$13.61	52% 1810-1682 (3492)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$22.35	$22.2	-$0.15	63% 2780-1667 (4447)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 95¢	$10.45	$11	+$0.55	66% 2369-1200 (3569)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 79¢	$9.07	—	-$9.07	38% 927-1543 (2470)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$5.58	—	-$5.58	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$13.12	—	-$13.12	47% 975-1099 (2074)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 41¢	$4.1	$10	+$5.9	50% 1445-1426 (2871)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 33¢	$2.97	$9	+$6.03	48% 1603-1710 (3313)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 28.4¢	$4.26	$15	+$10.74	48% 1361-1500 (2861)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Invested

$550

Value

$500

PnL

+$8.97

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

$24.16

PnL

+$13.61

Record

52%

1810-1682 (3492)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$22.35

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$0.15

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

Invested

$10.45

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.55

Record

66%

2369-1200 (3569)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.07

Value

—

PnL

-$9.07

Record

38%

927-1543 (2470)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

—

PnL

-$5.58

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

—

PnL

-$13.12

Record

47%

975-1099 (2074)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.9

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$9

PnL

+$6.03

Record

48%

1603-1710 (3313)

Invested

$4.26

Value

$15

PnL

+$10.74

Record

48%

1361-1500 (2861)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2eccaaeb...eaf3e7

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794521400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $500

MayorMamdani

Down — $24.16

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $22.2

asdaefef

Down — $11

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $10

dvasdkasodk

Down — $9

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