Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Up 38%
$99.48
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$522.35 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97.1¢ | $37.56 | $34 | -$3.56 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $20.58 | $21 | +$0.42 | 98% 2405-48 (2453) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $13.56 | $12 | -$1.56 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $9.99 | $12.26 | +$2.27 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $7.2 | $5 | -$2.2 | 48% 1603-1710 (3313) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $6.23 | $5.17 | -$1.06 | 63% 1662-970 (2632) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $4.7 | $5.05 | +$0.35 | 47% 975-1099 (2074) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $0.96 | — | -$0.96 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $1.04 | — | -$1.04 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
Invested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$522.35
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$37.56
Value
$34
PnL
-$3.56
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
Invested
$20.58
Value
$21
PnL
+$0.42
Record
98%
2405-48 (2453)
Invested
$13.56
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.56
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$12.26
PnL
+$2.27
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.2
Record
48%
1603-1710 (3313)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$1.06
Record
63%
1662-970 (2632)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.35
Record
47%
975-1099 (2074)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$0.96
Value
—
PnL
-$0.96
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$1.04
Value
—
PnL
-$1.04
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)