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ohioism<$100DownUpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Up 38%
Total Value
$50.2
Combined PnL
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,063
Combined PnL$-1.1K
Down5 traders
Total Value$50.2
Total Shares50
Combined PnL+$3.63
Up — 38%Down — 62%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$549 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $19 | $20 | +$1 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $10.78 | $11 | +$0.22 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
ohioism<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $13.65 | $15 | +$1.35 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.2¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $1.79 | $2.82 | +$1.03 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $1.35 | $1.38 | +$0.03 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$549
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$19
Value
$20
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$10.78
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.22
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.65
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.35
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$1.79
Value
$2.82
PnL
+$1.03
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.03
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x361f8a39...a7bca4
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794520500