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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 22% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 22%

Total Value

$67

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,050

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down7 traders

Total Value$67

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$1.41

Up — 22%Down — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$546.5	51% 2266-2202 (4468)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$15	+$0.02	49% 936-980 (1916)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96.1¢	$12.63	$12	-$0.63	66% 2369-1200 (3569)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$11.71	$12	+$0.29	37% 716-1225 (1941)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96.9¢	$11.62	$12	+$0.38	52% 1810-1682 (3492)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	48% 1603-1710 (3313)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 84¢	$5.04	$6	+$0.96	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 94¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	63% 2780-1667 (4447)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$546.5

Record

51%

2266-2202 (4468)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

936-980 (1916)

Invested

$12.63

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.63

Record

66%

2369-1200 (3569)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$11.71

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.29

Record

37%

716-1225 (1941)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$11.62

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

1810-1682 (3492)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

1603-1710 (3313)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.96

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

63%

2780-1667 (4447)

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc895388c...869e4d

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794519900

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x50f7

Down — $15

asdaefef

Down — $12

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $12

MayorMamdani

Down — $12

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $6

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5

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