Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$545.36
-$523.85
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $510.42 | -$19.4 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $273 | — | -$272.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $255.21 | $510.42 | +$253.28 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.9¢ | $9.95 | — | -$9.95 | 38% 927-1543 (2470) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $12.42 | — | -$12.42 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $21.57 | $18 | -$3.56 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $6.48 | $10.22 | +$3.74 | 52% 1810-1682 (3492) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $3.57 | $6.71 | +$3.14 | 66% 2369-1200 (3569) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 50% 481-481 (962) |
Invested
$550
Value
$510.42
PnL
-$19.4
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
Invested
$9.95
Value
—
PnL
-$9.95
Record
38%
927-1543 (2470)
Invested
$12.42
Value
—
PnL
-$12.42
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$18
PnL
-$3.56
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.48
Value
$10.22
PnL
+$3.74
Record
52%
1810-1682 (3492)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$3.14
Record
66%
2369-1200 (3569)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
50%
481-481 (962)