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UpDownDownDownDown
ohioismCTR<$100UpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Up 33%
Total Value
$531.31
Combined PnL
-$559.88
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares562
Combined PnL-$547.48
Down5 traders
Total Value$531.31
Total Shares531
Combined PnL-$12.4
Up — 29%Down — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$545.2 | 51% 2266-2202 (4468) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2466-1957 (4423) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $22.72 | $13.31 | -$9.41 | 50% 1445-1426 (2871) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 96.3¢ | $11.55 | $12 | +$0.45 | 37% 716-1225 (1941) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $9.84 | $6 | -$3.84 | 50% 1977-1974 (3951) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $2.28 | — | -$2.28 | 48% 1361-1500 (2861) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $4.25 | — | +$0.4 | 63% 2780-1667 (4447) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$545.2
Record
51%
2266-2202 (4468)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2466-1957 (4423)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$22.72
Value
$13.31
PnL
-$9.41
Record
50%
1445-1426 (2871)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$11.55
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.45
Record
37%
716-1225 (1941)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$9.84
Value
$6
PnL
-$3.84
Record
50%
1977-1974 (3951)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
—
PnL
-$2.28
Record
48%
1361-1500 (2861)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.25
Value
—
PnL
+$0.4
Record
63%
2780-1667 (4447)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xef6f91de...373d8f
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794519300