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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$540.11

Combined PnL

-$26.46

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$50.11

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$7.92

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$34.39

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$4.7	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$245.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$14.69	$22.97	+$8.28	38% 880-1457 (2337)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$13.98	$13.99	+$0.01	49% 903-945 (1848)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$9.17	—	-$9.17	51% 1376-1320 (2696)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$8.97	—	-$8.97	51% 2178-2103 (4281)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 31.7¢	$11.05	—	-$11.05	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 86¢	$4.3	$5	+$0.7	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.27	$3.15	-$1.12	66% 2271-1160 (3431)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	44% 1316-1666 (2982)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 15.1¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	52% 1755-1602 (3357)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$4.7

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Down$24550¢+$245.3

Up$25050¢-$250

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.69

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$8.28

Record

38%

880-1457 (2337)

Invested

$13.98

Value

$13.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

903-945 (1848)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$9.17

Value

—

PnL

-$9.17

Record

51%

1376-1320 (2696)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

—

PnL

-$8.97

Record

51%

2178-2103 (4281)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$11.05

Value

—

PnL

-$11.05

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

Invested

$4.27

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.12

Record

66%

2271-1160 (3431)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

44%

1316-1666 (2982)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

52%

1755-1602 (3357)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3e08e96b...a60c61

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794508500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Down — $22.97

0x50f7

Down — $13.99

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5

asdaefef

Down — $3.15

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

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