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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

4

Up 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$8.82

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$16.09

Total Shares16

Combined PnL+$1.04

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$9.86

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$494.5	-$19.51	51% 2178-2103 (4281)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.25	$494.5	+$252.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$269.87	—	-$271.97
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$507.62	$501.01	+$3.19	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250.31	$501.01	+$252.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$247.87	—	-$249.76
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 27.6¢	$54.1	$28.45	-$25.65	38% 880-1457 (2337)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$36.44	—	-$36.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$17.66	$28.45	+$10.79
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$33.6	$46.16	+$12.56	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$20.09	$46.16	+$26.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$13.51	—	-$13.51
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$14.85	$15.89	+$1.04	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$5.2	—	-$5.2	52% 1755-1602 (3357)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 31.1¢	$4.66	—	-$4.66	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96¢	$0.19	$0.2	+$0.01	66% 2271-1160 (3431)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$494.5

PnL

-$19.51

Record

51%

2178-2103 (4281)

Both legs:

Down$247.2550¢+$252.46

Up$269.8750¢-$271.97

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.62

Value

$501.01

PnL

+$3.19

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Down$250.3150¢+$252.95

Up$247.8749.5¢-$249.76

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$54.1

Value

$28.45

PnL

-$25.65

Record

38%

880-1457 (2337)

Both legs:

Up$36.4427.6¢-$36.44

Down$17.6662.1¢+$10.79

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$46.16

PnL

+$12.56

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Both legs:

Down$20.0943.5¢+$26.08

Up$13.5132.4¢-$13.51

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15.89

PnL

+$1.04

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

—

PnL

-$5.2

Record

52%

1755-1602 (3357)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

—

PnL

-$4.66

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

66%

2271-1160 (3431)

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 4 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf5007482...1a78d8

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794507300

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $15.89

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $0.2

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