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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 62%

Total Value

$50.32

Combined PnL

-$520.73

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares586

Combined PnL-$527.63

Down5 traders

Total Value$50.32

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$6.89

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$498.22	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$16.83	$17	+$0.17	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$17.73	—	-$17.73	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96¢	$8.73	$9.09	+$0.36	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$7.5	—	-$7.5	51% 1376-1320 (2696)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$5.98	$12.19	+$6.21	51% 2178-2103 (4281)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$2.04	—	-$2.04	48% 1314-1432 (2746)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98.5¢	$5.94	$6.03	+$0.09	66% 2271-1160 (3431)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	63% 1587-944 (2531)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$1.22	—	-$1.22	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$0.5	—	-$0.5	52% 1755-1602 (3357)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.36	—	-$0.36	49% 903-945 (1848)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 880-1457 (2337)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$498.22

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$17.73

Value

—

PnL

-$17.73

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$0.36

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

1376-1320 (2696)

Invested

$5.98

Value

$12.19

PnL

+$6.21

Record

51%

2178-2103 (4281)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.04

Value

—

PnL

-$2.04

Record

48%

1314-1432 (2746)

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.09

Record

66%

2271-1160 (3431)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

63%

1587-944 (2531)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

—

PnL

-$1.22

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

—

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

1755-1602 (3357)

Invested

$0.36

Value

—

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

903-945 (1848)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

880-1457 (2337)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x44fce9e4...34d70f

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794506100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $17

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $9.09

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $12.19

ohioism

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $6.03

asidjasiodja

Down — $6

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

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