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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$46.62

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$46.96

Up1 trader

Total Value$11.11

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.33

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$545.49	-$0.13	51% 2178-2103 (4281)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$272.28	—	-$272.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$272.75	$545.49	+$272.11
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$507.1	$497.29	-$3.7	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$250.69	$497.29	+$245.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.17	—	-$248.9
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 18.9¢	$25.12	—	-$25.12	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 27.5¢	$13.59	—	-$13.59	38% 880-1457 (2337)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 97¢	$10.78	$11.11	+$0.33	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$6.1	—	-$6.1	66% 2271-1160 (3431)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$1.82	—	-$1.82	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.33	—	-$0.33	49% 903-945 (1848)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$545.49

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

2178-2103 (4281)

Both legs:

Down$272.2850¢-$272.24

Up$272.7550¢+$272.11

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.1

Value

$497.29

PnL

-$3.7

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Up$250.6950.4¢+$245.2

Down$248.1750¢-$248.9

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$25.12

Value

—

PnL

-$25.12

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

—

PnL

-$13.59

Record

38%

880-1457 (2337)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.78

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$0.33

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

—

PnL

-$6.1

Record

66%

2271-1160 (3431)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

Invested

$0.33

Value

—

PnL

-$0.33

Record

49%

903-945 (1848)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7c695416...6a6d1e

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794505500

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $11.11

asdaefef

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

0x50f7

Down — $0

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