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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 50%

Total Value

$70.33

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down5 traders

Total Value$70.33

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$18.81

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$525.39	51% 2178-2103 (4281)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$508.31	—	-$501.55	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$12.15	$27.11	+$14.96	38% 880-1457 (2337)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96¢	$16.3	$15	-$1.28	62% 2642-1602 (4244)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$11.11	$11.22	+$0.11	74% 1071-381 (1452)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 52¢	$5.2	$10	+$4.8	50% 450-448 (898)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97¢	$6.79	$7	+$0.21	48% 1515-1649 (3164)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.1¢	$2.36	—	-$2.36	49% 903-945 (1848)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$8.36	—	-$8.36	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$0.38	—	-$0.38	52% 1755-1602 (3357)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$525.39

Record

51%

2178-2103 (4281)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$508.31

Value

—

PnL

-$501.55

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$27.11

PnL

+$14.96

Record

38%

880-1457 (2337)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.28

Record

62%

2642-1602 (4244)

Invested

$11.11

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$0.11

Record

74%

1071-381 (1452)

Invested

$5.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.8

Record

50%

450-448 (898)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

1515-1649 (3164)

Invested

$2.36

Value

—

PnL

-$2.36

Record

49%

903-945 (1848)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$8.36

Value

—

PnL

-$8.36

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.38

Value

—

PnL

-$0.38

Record

52%

1755-1602 (3357)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf7c1628e...caa6cb

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794504900

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $27.11

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $15

BoneOhio

Down — $11.22

PBot-6

Down — $10

dvasdkasodk

Down — $7

0x50f7

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

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