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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Up 43%
Total Value
$28.16
Combined PnL
-$499.82
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares520
Combined PnL-$502.74
Down4 traders
Total Value$28.16
Total Shares28
Combined PnL+$2.92
Up — 43%Down — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
09 0x0970...e369CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.1¢ | $2.69 | — | -$2.69 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $8.25 | $10 | +$1.75 | 46% 1269-1467 (2736) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $6.93 | $7.16 | +$0.23 | 66% 2224-1129 (3353) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $5.88 | $6 | +$0.12 | 38% 650-1081 (1731) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $5.13 | $5 | +$0.82 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 866-1417 (2283) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
09
0x0970...e369CTR<$100Invested
$2.69
Value
—
PnL
-$2.69
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100Invested
$8.25
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.75
Record
46%
1269-1467 (2736)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$6.93
Value
$7.16
PnL
+$0.23
Record
66%
2224-1129 (3353)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$5.88
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
38%
650-1081 (1731)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$5.13
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.82
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
866-1417 (2283)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2e943d13...a5aed8
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794501000