Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$676.15

Combined PnL

-$270.87

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares375

Combined PnL-$322.05

Down5 traders

Total Value$166.15

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$51.18

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$507.5	$510	+$2.5	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$257.5	$510	+$252.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$350	—	-$301.02	51% 2130-2057 (4187)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 47.5¢	$50.32	$105.89	+$55.57	48% 748-800 (1548)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 67¢	$29.15	$22.37	-$6.78	38% 866-1417 (2283)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 99¢	$19.8	$20	+$0.2	47% 912-1024 (1936)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$11.65	—	-$11.65	46% 1269-1467 (2736)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$24.87	$13.19	+$2.26	62% 2576-1569 (4145)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 67¢	$4.76	$4.69	-$0.07	44% 1290-1624 (2914)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$5.72	—	-$5.72	48% 1485-1609 (3094)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 10.7¢	$1.26	—	-$1.26	66% 2224-1129 (3353)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	63% 1554-926 (2480)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.5

Value

$510

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Down$257.550.5¢+$252.5

Up$25050¢-$250

Invested

$350

Value

—

PnL

-$301.02

Record

51%

2130-2057 (4187)

Invested

$50.32

Value

$105.89

PnL

+$55.57

Record

48%

748-800 (1548)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$22.37

PnL

-$6.78

Record

38%

866-1417 (2283)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

912-1024 (1936)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$11.65

Value

—

PnL

-$11.65

Record

46%

1269-1467 (2736)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$24.87

Value

$13.19

PnL

+$2.26

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

44%

1290-1624 (2914)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

—

PnL

-$5.72

Record

48%

1485-1609 (3094)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

—

PnL

-$1.26

Record

66%

2224-1129 (3353)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

63%

1554-926 (2480)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9bcb13d...f80d0e

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794500700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $0

PBot-5

Down — $105.89

antsaslyku

Down — $22.37

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $20

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $13.19

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $4.69

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket