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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$422.13
Combined PnL
-$491.09
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares528
Combined PnL-$518.29
Down3 traders
Total Value$101.11
Total Shares101
Combined PnL+$27.2
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $350 | $321.02 | -$5.91 | 51% 2130-2057 (4187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $160.51 | $321.02 | +$164.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $170 | — | -$170.3 | |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $29.28 | $60 | +$30.72 | 48% 748-800 (1548) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $33.24 | $29.06 | -$4.18 | 51% 1806-1756 (3562) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $11.39 | $12.05 | +$0.66 | 62% 2576-1569 (4145) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $6.62 | — | -$6.62 | 51% 1347-1269 (2616) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.7¢ | $14.6 | — | -$11.67 | 38% 866-1417 (2283) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$350
Value
$321.02
PnL
-$5.91
Record
51%
2130-2057 (4187)
Both legs:
Down$160.5150¢+$164.39
Up$17050¢-$170.3
PB
PBot-5<$100Invested
$29.28
Value
$60
PnL
+$30.72
Record
48%
748-800 (1548)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$33.24
Value
$29.06
PnL
-$4.18
Record
51%
1806-1756 (3562)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$11.39
Value
$12.05
PnL
+$0.66
Record
62%
2576-1569 (4145)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$6.62
Value
—
PnL
-$6.62
Record
51%
1347-1269 (2616)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$14.6
Value
—
PnL
-$11.67
Record
38%
866-1417 (2283)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3cf6682c...bae63d
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794500400