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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 40%

Total Value

$160.15

Combined PnL

-$461.06

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares541
Combined PnL-$520.46
Down6 traders
Total Value$160.15
Total Shares160
Combined PnL+$59.4
Up — 40%Down — 60%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

SO
soswald1<$100
Down

Invested

$42.35

Value

$66.7

PnL

+$24.35

Record

51%

2130-2057 (4187)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Down

Invested

$25.98

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$9.29

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

cryingbabydicer87<$100
Down

Invested

$13.9

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

47%

912-1024 (1936)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$18

Value

—

PnL

-$18

Record

48%

1288-1398 (2686)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$7.7

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$2.43

Record

52%

1724-1588 (3312)

AN
antsaslyku<$100
Down

Invested

$6.03

Value

$18

PnL

+$11.97

Record

38%

866-1417 (2283)

UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$15

PnL

+$10.2

Record

51%

1347-1269 (2616)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.56

Value

—

PnL

-$1.56

Record

48%

1485-1609 (3094)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.9

Value

—

PnL

-$0.9

Record

62%

2576-1569 (4145)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xea0957a0...5c682b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794498000

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
SO

soswald1

Down — $66.7

+$24.35
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $35.26

+$9.29

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $15.05

+$1.15

ohioism

CTR

Up — $0

-$18

MayorMamdani

Down — $10.13

+$2.43
AN

antsaslyku

Down — $18

+$11.97
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $15

+$10.2
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.56
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.9
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