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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 31%

Total Value

$116.46

Combined PnL

-$505.25

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 13 top traders (31%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares600

Combined PnL-$515.41

Down9 traders

Total Value$116.46

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$10.15

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$41.64	$45.83	+$4.19	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 88¢	$13.2	$15	+$1.8	74% 1022-354 (1376)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94.3¢	$13.19	$12.17	-$1.02	67% 2180-1089 (3269)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$9.35	$10	+$0.65	52% 1676-1557 (3233)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98.4¢	$7.92	$8.05	+$0.13	62% 2512-1527 (4039)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 87¢	$6.96	$8	+$1.04	52% 1296-1214 (2510)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 88.5¢	$4.75	$5.37	+$0.62	63% 1521-902 (2423)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$4.85	$7.04	+$2.19	38% 841-1390 (2231)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89¢	$4.45	$5	+$0.55	48% 1442-1566 (3008)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$1.17	—	-$1.17	46% 1227-1428 (2655)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 22.5¢	$12.88	—	-$12.88	51% 2068-2013 (4081)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$1.36	—	-$1.36	44% 1249-1571 (2820)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$41.64

Value

$45.83

PnL

+$4.19

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

Invested

$13.2

Value

$15

PnL

+$1.8

Record

74%

1022-354 (1376)

Invested

$13.19

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$1.02

Record

67%

2180-1089 (3269)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

1676-1557 (3233)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.13

Record

62%

2512-1527 (4039)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$6.96

Value

$8

PnL

+$1.04

Record

52%

1296-1214 (2510)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$0.62

Record

63%

1521-902 (2423)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$2.19

Record

38%

841-1390 (2231)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

1442-1566 (3008)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

—

PnL

-$1.17

Record

46%

1227-1428 (2655)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$12.88

Value

—

PnL

-$12.88

Record

51%

2068-2013 (4081)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

—

PnL

-$1.36

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 13 top traders (31%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb00bc3f1...0e2e1d

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794493200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $45.83

BoneOhio

Down — $15

asdaefef

Down — $12.17

MayorMamdani

Down — $10

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $8.05

uninformedfloww

Down — $8

asidjasiodja

Down — $5.37

antsaslyku

Down — $7.04

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5

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