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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 50%
Total Value
$16
Combined PnL
-$846.05
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares856
Combined PnL-$846.33
Down3 traders
Total Value$16
Total Shares16
Combined PnL+$0.28
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
09 0x0970...e369CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $350 | — | -$346.15 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $5.82 | $6 | +$0.18 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.18 | — | -$0.18 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
09
0x0970...e369CTRInvested
$350
Value
—
PnL
-$346.15
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$5.82
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.18
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
—
PnL
-$0.18
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xab0d0121...f36877
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794492900