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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 36%

Total Value

$140.16

Combined PnL

-$531.41

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 14 top traders (36%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares630
Combined PnL-$529.06
Down9 traders
Total Value$140.16
Total Shares140
Combined PnL-$2.35
Up — 36%Down — 64%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

SO
soswald1<$100
Down

Invested

$48.07

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$2.1

Record

51%

2068-2013 (4081)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$30.76

Value

$27.06

PnL

-$3.7

Record

48%

1442-1566 (3008)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$20.32

Value

$15

PnL

-$5.32

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$10.48

Value

$13

PnL

+$2.52

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$9.55

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

1676-1557 (3233)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Down

Invested

$8.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.7

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

67%

2180-1089 (3269)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.29

Record

63%

1521-902 (2423)

BoneOhio<$100
Down

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.68

Record

74%

1022-354 (1376)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.75

Value

—

PnL

-$8.75

Record

46%

1227-1428 (2655)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$7.81

Value

—

PnL

-$5.09

Record

62%

2512-1527 (4039)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.25

Value

—

PnL

-$8.25

Record

48%

1250-1346 (2596)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.97

Value

—

PnL

-$6.97

Record

52%

1296-1214 (2510)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x3e80f49e...50ab95
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794492600

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
SO

soswald1

Down — $50.17

+$2.1
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $27.06

-$3.7
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

-$5.32

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $13

+$2.52

MayorMamdani

Down — $10

+$0.45
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $10

+$1.7
AS

asdaefef

Down — $5

-$0.5
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $5.06

-$0.29

BoneOhio

Down — $4.88

+$0.68
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