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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Up 67%
Total Value
$28.89
Combined PnL
-$500.44
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares521
Combined PnL-$501.27
Down3 traders
Total Value$28.89
Total Shares29
Combined PnL+$0.84
Up — 57%Down — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $19.38 | $19.89 | +$0.51 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $9.92 | $9 | -$0.92 | 67% 2180-1089 (3269) |
09 0x0970...e369CTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 38% 633-1050 (1683) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 841-1390 (2231) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $3.6 | — | +$1.25 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$19.38
Value
$19.89
PnL
+$0.51
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$9.92
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.92
Record
67%
2180-1089 (3269)
09
0x0970...e369CTR<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
38%
633-1050 (1683)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
841-1390 (2231)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
+$1.25
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x026f2aa4...aa629f
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794492300