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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Up 57%
Total Value
$19.22
Combined PnL
-$512.01
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares643
Combined PnL-$514.74
Down3 traders
Total Value$19.22
Total Shares19
Combined PnL+$2.73
Up — 57%Down — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2370-1839 (4209) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $6.75 | $10 | +$3.25 | 62% 2512-1527 (4039) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $7.11 | — | -$7.11 | 47% 1280-1435 (2715) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5.85 | $5.25 | -$0.6 | 51% 2068-2013 (4081) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $3.89 | $3.97 | +$0.08 | 48% 1442-1566 (3008) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $3.09 | — | -$3.09 | 49% 860-907 (1767) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.2¢ | $4.54 | — | -$4.54 | 51% 1741-1694 (3435) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2370-1839 (4209)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$6.75
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.25
Record
62%
2512-1527 (4039)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100Invested
$7.11
Value
—
PnL
-$7.11
Record
47%
1280-1435 (2715)
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.6
Record
51%
2068-2013 (4081)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$3.89
Value
$3.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
1442-1566 (3008)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$3.09
Value
—
PnL
-$3.09
Record
49%
860-907 (1767)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$4.54
Value
—
PnL
-$4.54
Record
51%
1741-1694 (3435)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0e5443aa...585f5a
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794492000