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UpDownDown
MayorMamdani<$100DownDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 33%
Total Value
$137.27
Combined PnL
-$491.07
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares514
Combined PnL-$501.08
Down4 traders
Total Value$137.27
Total Shares137
Combined PnL+$10.01
Up — 33%Down — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 56% 2343-1812 (4155) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $54.78 | $59.81 | +$5.03 | 51% 1148-1119 (2267) |
09 0x0970...e369<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $38.95 | $41.46 | +$2.5 | — |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $19.9 | $22 | +$2.1 | 51% 1519-1433 (2952) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97.4¢ | $13.63 | $14 | +$0.37 | 62% 2374-1448 (3822) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 47% 1362-1519 (2881) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
56%
2343-1812 (4155)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$54.78
Value
$59.81
PnL
+$5.03
Record
51%
1148-1119 (2267)
09
0x0970...e369<$100Invested
$38.95
Value
$41.46
PnL
+$2.5
Record
—
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$19.9
Value
$22
PnL
+$2.1
Record
51%
1519-1433 (2952)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$13.63
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.37
Record
62%
2374-1448 (3822)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
47%
1362-1519 (2881)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8712b1b8...6bc150
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794480000