XRP Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (88%) · Up at 100¢ · $579 held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

Total Value

$579.45

Combined PnL

$6.82

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 99.5¢

+87% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$574.2

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$6.67

Down1 trader

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.15

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$11.85	$16.14	+$4.29	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$15.98	$15.69	-$0.29	51% 1455-1384 (2839)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 98.6¢	$12.87	$12.99	+$0.12	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 48¢	$9.48	$11.03	+$1.55	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	$9.95	+$5.05	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 74¢	$12.45	$8.41	-$4.04	74% 910-315 (1225)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.25	+$0.15	50% 1050-1060 (2110)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$16.14

PnL

+$4.29

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$15.98

Value

$15.69

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

1455-1384 (2839)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$1.55

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$5.05

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$4.04

Record

74%

910-315 (1225)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.