Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$588.79
$13.3
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500.51 | $490.71 | -$2 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.51 | $490.71 | +$248 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $43.68 | $55.99 | +$12.32 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $8.91 | $9.01 | +$0.1 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $13.35 | $15 | +$1.65 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $6.93 | $7.01 | +$0.08 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $7.02 | $6 | -$1.02 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3.8 | $5.07 | +$1.27 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.04 | — | -$0.04 | 38% 578-951 (1529) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
Invested
$500.51
Value
$490.71
PnL
-$2
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.68
Value
$55.99
PnL
+$12.32
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.35
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.65
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.08
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.02
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$1.27
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
Invested
$0.04
Value
—
PnL
-$0.04
Record
38%
578-951 (1529)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $55.99
dvasdkasodk
Down — $9.01
ohioism
Down — $15
asdaefef
Down — $7.01
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $6
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $5.07
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0