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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 44%

Total Value

$51.62

Combined PnL

-$609

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares621

Combined PnL-$611.69

Down5 traders

Total Value$51.62

Total Shares52

Combined PnL+$2.69

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$505.2	—	-$504.12	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 77.1¢	$103.37	—	-$103.37	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98.7¢	$11.39	$11.54	+$0.15	47% 1308-1484 (2792)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.8	—	-$0.8	48% 770-848 (1618)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96¢	$8.64	$9	+$0.36	66% 1988-1002 (2990)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$13.05	$15.08	+$2.03	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 49¢	$10.35	$10	+$0.09	62% 2279-1406 (3685)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	62% 1374-851 (2225)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$3.4	—	-$3.4	37% 778-1309 (2087)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.2

Value

—

PnL

-$504.12

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$103.37

Value

—

PnL

-$103.37

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$11.39

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

1308-1484 (2792)

Invested

$0.8

Value

—

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

770-848 (1618)

Invested

$8.64

Value

$9

PnL

+$0.36

Record

66%

1988-1002 (2990)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$13.05

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$2.03

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.09

Record

62%

2279-1406 (3685)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

62%

1374-851 (2225)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

—

PnL

-$3.4

Record

37%

778-1309 (2087)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe9b27b2b...3d339c

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794470100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $11.54

0x50f7

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $9

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15.08

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10

asidjasiodja

Down — $6

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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