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DownUpUp
BoneOhio<$100Up
MayorMamdani<$100Up
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 20%
Total Value
$56.53
Combined PnL
-$504.75
Smart Money Signal
Down
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares516
Combined PnL-$500.19
Up4 traders
Total Value$56.53
Total Shares57
Combined PnL-$4.56
Down — 20%Up — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.6¢ | $505.84 | — | -$500.19 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 90.3¢ | $29.27 | $24.81 | -$4.46 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $18.26 | $15.9 | -$2.36 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $10.71 | $10.82 | +$0.11 | 74% 910-315 (1225) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $5 | +$2.15 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$505.84
Value
—
PnL
-$500.19
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$29.27
Value
$24.81
PnL
-$4.46
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$18.26
Value
$15.9
PnL
-$2.36
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.71
Value
$10.82
PnL
+$0.11
Record
74%
910-315 (1225)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9354854f...167877
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794469500