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MayorMamdaniCTR<$100UpDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$511.36
Combined PnL
-$50.34
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares58
Combined PnL-$51.35
Down2 traders
Total Value$17.07
Total Shares17
Combined PnL+$1.01
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $504.47 | $494.29 | -$8.18 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.14 | $494.29 | +$246.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $254.47 | — | -$254.47 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 74.5¢ | $42.31 | — | -$42.31 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $11.16 | $12.07 | +$0.91 | 62% 2279-1406 (3685) |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.6¢ | $7.6 | — | -$7.6 | 51% 1455-1384 (2839) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 66% 1988-1002 (2990) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$504.47
Value
$494.29
PnL
-$8.18
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Down$247.1450¢+$246.29
Up$254.4750.2¢-$254.47
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$42.31
Value
—
PnL
-$42.31
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$11.16
Value
$12.07
PnL
+$0.91
Record
62%
2279-1406 (3685)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
51%
1455-1384 (2839)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
66%
1988-1002 (2990)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1a728488...1daccd
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794468900