Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
6
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$532
-$13.15
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.5Β’ | $505.2 | $495 | -$3.15 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $247.5 | $495 | +$248.95 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.5Β’ | $250.25 | β | -$252.1 | |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 80.3Β’ | $16.75 | $20 | +$3.25 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.5Β’ | $14.03 | β | -$14.03 | 37% 737-1242 (1979) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 88Β’ | $11.77 | $12 | +$0.23 | 51% 1582-1533 (3115) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79Β’ | $3.95 | $5 | +$1.05 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 39Β’ | $1.95 | β | -$1.95 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 34Β’ | $1.7 | β | -$1.7 | 46% 1064-1272 (2336) |
Invested
$505.2
Value
$495
PnL
-$3.15
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$20
PnL
+$3.25
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
Invested
$14.03
Value
β
PnL
-$14.03
Record
37%
737-1242 (1979)
Invested
$11.77
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.23
Record
51%
1582-1533 (3115)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.05
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
Invested
$1.95
Value
β
PnL
-$1.95
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Invested
$1.7
Value
β
PnL
-$1.7
Record
46%
1064-1272 (2336)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded

MayorMamdani
Down β $20
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down β $12
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $5
asdaefef
CTRUp β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp β $0