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DownDownDownDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 80%
Total Value
$5
Combined PnL
-$503.43
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares560
Combined PnL-$503.83
Up1 trader
Total Value$5
Total Shares5
Combined PnL+$0.4
Down — 80%Up — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$495.4 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.5¢ | $7.15 | — | -$7.15 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
F8 0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100 | Downavg 13.2¢ | $1.13 | — | -$1.13 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 47% 727-804 (1531) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $5 | +$0.4 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$495.4
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$7.15
Value
—
PnL
-$7.15
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
F8
0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100Invested
$1.13
Value
—
PnL
-$1.13
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
47%
727-804 (1531)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.4
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc2b045be...402838
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794455700