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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 20%
Total Value
$16.64
Combined PnL
-$485.35
Smart Money Signal
Up
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares491
Combined PnL-$487.97
Down4 traders
Total Value$16.64
Total Shares17
Combined PnL+$2.62
Up — 20%Down — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $500.16 | — | -$487.97 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $4.45 | $5.36 | +$0.91 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $4.25 | $5.12 | +$0.87 | 61% 1295-819 (2114) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $4.3 | $5.06 | +$0.76 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $1.02 | $1.1 | +$0.08 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500.16
Value
—
PnL
-$487.97
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.91
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$4.25
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.87
Record
61%
1295-819 (2114)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.76
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbf34fd04...e13424
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794454500