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DownUpUpDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$24.63
Combined PnL
-$24.29
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$24.63
Total Shares25
Combined PnL-$1.76
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares52
Combined PnL-$22.53
Down — 40%Up — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $26.11 | $19 | -$3.11 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
F8 0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $11.9 | — | -$11.9 | — |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.5¢ | $9.28 | — | -$9.28 | 38% 709-1165 (1874) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $4.28 | $5.63 | +$1.35 | 38% 459-750 (1209) |
5D 0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | — |
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$26.11
Value
$19
PnL
-$3.11
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
F8
0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100Invested
$11.9
Value
—
PnL
-$11.9
Record
—
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$9.28
Value
—
PnL
-$9.28
Record
38%
709-1165 (1874)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$4.28
Value
$5.63
PnL
+$1.35
Record
38%
459-750 (1209)
5D
0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
—
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x38ebe7fc...f9aea5
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794452100