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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$10
Combined PnL
-$6.99
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares266
Combined PnL-$5.49
Down2 traders
Total Value$10
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$1.5
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.27 | — | -$2.27 | 46% 507-597 (1104) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 7.7¢ | $2.22 | — | -$2.22 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 58% 1663-1228 (2891) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.55 | $5 | -$1.55 | 62% 1746-1091 (2837) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 60% 1062-712 (1774) |
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$2.27
Value
—
PnL
-$2.27
Record
46%
507-597 (1104)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
—
PnL
-$2.22
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
BY
ByteBadger92CTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
1663-1228 (2891)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$6.55
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.55
Record
62%
1746-1091 (2837)
AS
asidjasiodja<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
60%
1062-712 (1774)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x11f2d635...f9ff16
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794405900