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DownUpUpDownUp
MayorMamdani<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 60%
Total Value
$16.21
Combined PnL
-$3.31
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$16.21
Total Shares16
Combined PnL+$2.04
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$5.35
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $21.02 | $9 | +$1.8 | 61% 903-581 (1484) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 44% 394-503 (897) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $11.8 | — | -$4.1 | 57% 763-564 (1327) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $6.93 | $7.05 | +$0.12 | 65% 811-445 (1256) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 41% 232-329 (561) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $0.04 | $0.16 | +$0.12 | 53% 551-490 (1041) |
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$21.02
Value
$9
PnL
+$1.8
Record
61%
903-581 (1484)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
44%
394-503 (897)
BY
ByteBadger92CTR<$100Invested
$11.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.1
Record
57%
763-564 (1327)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$6.93
Value
$7.05
PnL
+$0.12
Record
65%
811-445 (1256)
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
41%
232-329 (561)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
551-490 (1041)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcadce905...87cc5f
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794303000