XRP Up or Down - November 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $94 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$94.15
-$54.17
84.8¢ → 100¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 87.2¢ | $121 | $69.41 | -$51.59 | 56% 77586-59890 (137476) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $11.48 | $14.4 | +$2.92 | 65% 130560-70335 (200895) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 64.6¢ | $6.79 | $5.25 | -$1.54 | 65% 114761-61818 (176579) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $4.35 | $2.59 | -$1.76 | 66% 130888-67724 (198612) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $2.5 | -$2.2 | 55% 51953-43063 (95016) |
Invested
$121
Value
$69.41
PnL
-$51.59
Record
56%
77586-59890 (137476)
Invested
$11.48
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$2.92
Record
65%
130560-70335 (200895)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$1.54
Record
65%
114761-61818 (176579)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$1.76
Record
66%
130888-67724 (198612)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$2.2
Record
55%
51953-43063 (95016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.