XRP Up or Down - November 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $360 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 50%
$359.7
-$51.21
89.2¢ → 99.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $197.34 | $199.99 | +$2.65 | 89% 29559-3560 (33119) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $104.78 | $82.57 | -$22.2 | 65% 130517-70309 (200826) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $91.94 | $67.35 | -$24.59 | 56% 77586-59890 (137476) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $9.04 | $7 | -$2.05 | 66% 130853-67700 (198553) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 11.8¢ | $3.26 | $2.35 | -$0.9 | 55% 51918-43034 (94952) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $4.57 | $0.45 | -$4.12 | 65% 114739-61779 (176518) |
Invested
$197.34
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$2.65
Record
89%
29559-3560 (33119)
Invested
$104.78
Value
$82.57
PnL
-$22.2
Record
65%
130517-70309 (200826)
Invested
$91.94
Value
$67.35
PnL
-$24.59
Record
56%
77586-59890 (137476)
Invested
$9.04
Value
$7
PnL
-$2.05
Record
66%
130853-67700 (198553)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.9
Record
55%
51918-43034 (94952)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$4.12
Record
65%
114739-61779 (176518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.