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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$60.88
Combined PnL
-$60.52
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$60.88
Total Shares61
Combined PnL-$11.72
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares71
Combined PnL-$48.8
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 94.4¢ | $65.81 | $45.88 | -$11.73 | 65% 130321-70183 (200504) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $37.33 | — | -$37.33 | 56% 77437-59824 (137261) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $9.05 | — | -$9.05 | 65% 114604-61650 (176254) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $15 | +$0.01 | 59% 63904-45042 (108946) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.2¢ | $2.42 | — | -$2.42 | 56% 60575-47128 (107703) |
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$65.81
Value
$45.88
PnL
-$11.73
Record
65%
130321-70183 (200504)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$37.33
Value
—
PnL
-$37.33
Record
56%
77437-59824 (137261)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$9.05
Value
—
PnL
-$9.05
Record
65%
114604-61650 (176254)
0X
0x50f7<$100Invested
$14.99
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
63904-45042 (108946)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$2.42
Value
—
PnL
-$2.42
Record
56%
60575-47128 (107703)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3bf07bc4...a41e7b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794016800