XRP Up or Down - November 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 99¢ · $67 held

<1¢Down>99¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

Total Value

$66.85

Combined PnL

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$66.85

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$0

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 90¢	$27	$27	+$0	65% 129163-69301 (198464)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96¢	$24	$24	+$0	55% 50906-42264 (93170)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99.1¢	$7.93	$7.93	+$0	61% 98082-62105 (160187)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99.1¢	$7.93	$7.93	+$0	66% 129650-66885 (196535)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$27

Value

$27

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

129163-69301 (198464)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

$24

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

50906-42264 (93170)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

98082-62105 (160187)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

129650-66885 (196535)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.