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DownUpUpDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$16
Combined PnL
-$3.48
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$16
Total Shares16
Combined PnL+$0.99
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares15
Combined PnL-$4.47
Down — 40%Up — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97.2¢ | $12.31 | $11 | -$1.31 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 66% 125935-64835 (190770) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $1.97 | — | -$1.97 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $5 | +$2.3 | 66% 112233-58692 (170925) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 61% 95030-59937 (154967) |
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$12.31
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.31
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
AS
asdaefefCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
66%
125935-64835 (190770)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$1.97
Value
—
PnL
-$1.97
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.3
Record
66%
112233-58692 (170925)
AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
61%
95030-59937 (154967)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x02c9515d...27baa6
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793386200