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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 89%

Total Value

$9.52

Combined PnL

-$5.64

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares64
Combined PnL-$8.85
Down2 traders
Total Value$9.52
Total Shares10
Combined PnL+$3.21
Up — 80%Down — 20%
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.15

Value

—

PnL

-$1.15

Record

57%

70922-54007 (124929)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$6.07

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$2.9

Record

64%

23273-12819 (36092)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.68

Value

—

PnL

-$1.68

Record

52%

90356-84870 (175226)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.47

Value

—

PnL

-$1.47

Record

61%

94946-59871 (154817)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.47

Value

—

PnL

-$1.47

Record

66%

125851-64777 (190628)

38
38791873984189CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

58095-44840 (102935)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

44953-37390 (82343)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

112191-58626 (170817)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

62257-43437 (105694)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xf40fdaf4...f4c3bc
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793373000

Traders in this Market

UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.15
AA

aaa221

Down — $8.97

+$2.9
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.68
AS

asidjasiodja

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.47
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.47
38

38791873984189

CTR

Up — $0

-$2.5
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0.55

+$0.3

MayorMamdani

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.4
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.05
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.13
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