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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 67%

Total Value

$28.76

Combined PnL

-$9.85

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares87
Combined PnL-$18.32
Down3 traders
Total Value$28.76
Total Shares29
Combined PnL+$8.47
Up — 67%Down — 33%
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.8

Value

—

PnL

-$6.8

Record

63%

51921-30603 (82524)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$8.28

Value

$12

PnL

+$3.72

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$9.76

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.79

Value

—

PnL

-$5.79

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

AN
antsaslyku<$100
Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.9

Value

—

PnL

-$1.9

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.71

Value

—

PnL

-$1.71

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.71

Value

—

PnL

-$1.71

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.41

Value

—

PnL

-$0.41

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xeddb88ee...9a8e1b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793370600

Traders in this Market

UpandDownSyndrome

CTR

Up — $0

-$6.8
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $12

+$3.72

MayorMamdani

Down — $11.76

+$2
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.79
AN

antsaslyku

Down — $5

+$2.75
AS

asidjasiodja

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.9
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.71
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.71
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.41
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