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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 50%
Total Value
$28.78
Combined PnL
-$16.84
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares54
Combined PnL-$27.22
Up3 traders
Total Value$28.78
Total Shares29
Combined PnL+$10.38
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.9¢ | $19.78 | — | -$19.78 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $11.85 | $13.78 | +$1.93 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $6.25 | — | -$6.25 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $4.3 | $10 | +$5.7 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $1.19 | — | -$1.19 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
—
PnL
-$19.78
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$11.85
Value
$13.78
PnL
+$1.93
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
AS
asdaefefCTR<$100Invested
$6.25
Value
—
PnL
-$6.25
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.7
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
—
PnL
-$1.19
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe5597f03...939638
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1793370300