Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
8
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$100.12
-$5.91
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.4Β’ | $58.05 | $65.28 | +$7.23 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 42.9Β’ | $28.03 | $65.28 | +$37.25 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 48.4Β’ | $30.02 | β | -$30.02 | |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 54.7Β’ | $7.69 | $11.41 | +$3.72 | 63% 51921-30603 (82524) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.1Β’ | $17.28 | β | -$17.28 | 66% 112173-58591 (170764) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 2Β’ | $0.37 | β | -$0.37 | 55% 44917-37366 (82283) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.9Β’ | $9.65 | β | -$9.65 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 19Β’ | $1.2 | $6.32 | +$5.12 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 19Β’ | $1.15 | $6.05 | +$4.9 | 66% 125811-64748 (190559) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 19Β’ | $1.15 | $6.05 | +$4.9 | 61% 94915-59834 (154749) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 45Β’ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
Invested
$58.05
Value
$65.28
PnL
+$7.23
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$7.69
Value
$11.41
PnL
+$3.72
Record
63%
51921-30603 (82524)
Invested
$17.28
Value
β
PnL
-$17.28
Record
66%
112173-58591 (170764)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.37
Value
β
PnL
-$0.37
Record
55%
44917-37366 (82283)
Invested
$9.65
Value
β
PnL
-$9.65
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$6.32
PnL
+$5.12
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$4.9
Record
66%
125811-64748 (190559)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$4.9
Record
61%
94915-59834 (154749)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage β excluded

UpandDownSyndrome
Down β $11.41
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0

MayorMamdani
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
Down β $6.32
asdaefef
Down β $6.05
asidjasiodja
Down β $6.05
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down β $5